Comment on Open thread, 9-15 June 2014

Tue, 24 Jun 2014 06:10:43 GMT

I think Bob's model is less good than Alice's in that it will make less accurate predictions of empirical facts (and potentially dangerous ones, given that e.g. alcohol is legal in some but not all of the emirates).

Forgive me, but this is preposterous. Neither model makes predictions about policy differences among the emirates, except insofar as Alice's model predicts that the other emirates don't exist. Different parts of a single country can have different policies, on alcohol or anything else, and do all the time. U.S. states have all kinds of differing laws. In California it's illegal to have a pet gerbil; in other states it isn't. You wouldn't for one moment cite this as an argument that California is a country. Or would you?

On the other hand, here is an empirical question where the models do in fact differ: Alice's model predicts that Dubai is a member of the UN and that the UAE (being nonexistent) isn't, while Bob's model predicts that the UAE is a member and that Dubai (being part of the UAE) isn't. Which model's prediction is more accurate?

Or how about this: which entity has embassies in other countries? Also an empirical fact. Which model predicts it correctly?

I suspect you know the answer as well as I do. I therefore don't believe you when you say

I'm not trying to be metacontrarian....I think Bob's model is less good than Alice's

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