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torekp comments on [LINK] Holden Karnofsky, GiveWell: Sequence Thinking vs. Cluster Thinking - Less Wrong
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I've only breezed through Holden Karnofsky's full article, but the demotion of calculated expected values only seems to apply where Knightian uncertainty is considerable.
That's his assertion but his examples don't really seem to support it. Hence my skepticism.