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trist comments on A Story of Kings and Spies - Less Wrong
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Comments (33)
Orin is willing to risk the kingdom as there is very real impact on being wrong. 10 likewise lost bets could ruin the kingdom. It's not a good test of truthfullness but it test's that the subjects knows the gravity and is sure he did not misunderstand anything.
Also Orin net worth is 3-4 lifetimes of skilled work? He must have inherited more than he will ever make. Assuming 3 kids per generation and one working parent the reward will see almost all of his 81 great grandchidlren workfree (as there is enough money to fund 100 lives).
The only way to be indifferent about whether honest persons have valid intel or not is to earn money equal to the damages of raising the bridges. 1000c / (200c/p / 70y / 365d/y *3d) the population of the kingdom is about 42583 if the skilled craftman's life payments would be the average payments (but it is not so it's more).
*miscalculated king winnigs of 800c resulted in population of 34066.
The king was proposing that Orin bet 1kc, of which they only have 800c currently, in order to receive 20kc (which is twenty five times their net worth). The 200c debt was what Orin would be reduced to if they were wrong.
Yes, that is an oversight. I guess I automatically assumed that money not currently available could end up as incurably lost.