gwern comments on A Story of Kings and Spies - Less Wrong

22 Post author: Joshua_Blaine 11 June 2014 11:54PM

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Comment author: gwern 16 June 2014 08:48:00PM 0 points [-]

b) working through some intuitions in regards to betting/prediction markets.

Why, then, did you choose an existential threat issue to base the entire story on when you know how many issues those bring up for prediction markets with regard to incentives and counterparty risk and the difficulty of 'betting on the apocalypse'? You should have chosen an issue more clearly within prediction markets' scope.