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Normal_Anomaly comments on Pascal's Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities - Less Wrong
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Because he said so, and people tend to be true to their word more often than dictated by chance.
That observation applies to humans, who also tend not to kill large numbers of people for no payoff (that is, if you've already refused the money and walked away).
That's a symmetric effect, though.
Yes, but they're more likely to kill large numbers of people conditional on you not doing what they say than conditional on you doing what they say.