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taryneast comments on Pascal's Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities - Less Wrong
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It's implausible that you're the person with that power. We could easily imagine a world in which everyone runs into a single absurdly powerful person. We could not imagine a world in which everyone was absurdly powerful (in their ability to control other people), because then multiple people would have control over the same thing.
If you knew that he had the power, but that his action wasn't going to depend on yours, then you wouldn't give him the money. So you're only concerned with the situation where you have the power.
Ok, sure thing. I get what you're saying. I managed to encompass that implausibility also into the arguments I made in my restatement anyway, but yeah, I agree that these are different kinds of "unlikely thing"