Lumifer comments on Pascal's Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities - Less Wrong

39 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 October 2007 11:37PM

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Comment author: Shield 10 December 2013 07:37:21PM *  -2 points [-]

I am not quite sure how do you reconcile the former and the latter parts of this sentence.

I am not quite sure why I would have issue. Above negligible in this case means any probability above that of a completely random unfalsifiable hypothesis with no evidence to support it.

So you think there's some credible evidence for god's existence but absolutely none, zero, zilch, nada evidence for the claim that god can give you eternal life and that believing in him increases your chances of receiving it?

No, and there's perfectly valid evidence to believe he wants us to not believe in him. Of course that isn't actually any evidence of a reward or an afterlife, nor would evidence that he wants us to believe in him be.

The current evidence at hand only indicates that God doesn't care about whether or not we believe in his existence, as god is omnipotent and could just give us ACTUAL evidence to convince everyone of his existence, which doesn't exist.

Of course he did. There is a large volume of sacred literature in most cultures which deals precisely with characteristics of gods. A large chunk of it claims to be revelatory and have divine origin.

This isn't evidence. There's an equal probability of people writing these things in universes where there is no God and universes where there is a God. This is of course an estimation, we haven't seen what these texts look like in an universe with a god compared to religious texts in an universe without a god, nor the amount of them, so the texts we have don't actually indicate anything about the existence of god.

The absolutely only difference between a religious text and a random hypothesis with no evidence to support it is that a religious text is a random hypothesis with no evidence to support it that someone wrote down.

There isn't anything in these texts to imply divine origin. They're full of logical errors, scientific errors, and they contradict themselves internally and among each other.

And if say, the bible was actually of divine origins, as it is full of logical errors, contradictions and scientific errors it would only indicate that god doesn't want us to believe in him, which is what you're trying to prove in the first place.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 December 2013 07:45:10PM 1 point [-]

<shrug> You're falling into the atheist-arguing-with-believers mode.

The original issue was whether you have discovered a new failure mode in Pascal's Wager (besides a few well-known ones). My view on that remains unchanged.

Comment author: Shield 10 December 2013 08:00:55PM *  -1 points [-]

You're falling into the atheist-arguing-with-believers mode.

I've only made arguments I think are correct in response to points that you made. If I have offended you, that was certainly not the intent and you can point to where you think I was rude.

But this is a theological argument. If you did not want to start a theological argument, then why did you start a theological argument?

What is your point?

The original issue was whether you have discovered a new failure mode in Pascal's Wager (besides a few well-known ones). My view on that remains unchanged.

"The original issue"? Were still talking about the same issue. Whether or not there's evidence to suggest that a god would do these things is an integral part of Pascals wager, aka the thing we've been talking about for 5 posts, and it's the only point you've made against my argument.

And in discussion it's customary to explain why your view hasn't changed. If my logic isn't incorrect, it is obviously correct, and it would be nice of you to explain why you think it isn't, instead of just offhandedly dismissing me without explanation.

Comment author: ialdabaoth 10 December 2013 08:05:07PM 0 points [-]

I've only made arguments I think are correct in response to points that you made. If I have offended you, that was certainly not the intent and you can point to where you think I was rude.

It's not about offending people, and I doubt that Lumifer is actually offended.

It's just that there are certain scripted / cached modes of debate that we try to avoid on this site, because they don't actually aid in the pursuit of rationality.

TLDR: Lumifer is trying to help you become stronger. You stand to learn an important skill if you pay careful attention.

Comment author: Shield 10 December 2013 08:35:38PM *  0 points [-]

Not once in my life have I had these debates (no, not exaggerating) and I find it a strange assumption that I have. Don't spend an immense amount of time on these sort of forums ya' see.

If this sort of debate is truly so scripted could you point me to one? Since I'd gain an equal amount of information, apparently.

I do actually want to know what the apparently so common christian reply to these arguments is, it's sort of why I asked. I'm here to get information, not to be told that the information has already been given. This fact doesn't really help me.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 December 2013 09:43:47PM *  0 points [-]

I do actually want to know what the apparently so common christian reply to these arguments is

Find a smart Christian and talk to her.

You could also think about what is evidence and what is ideas in your mind about what God (according to your convenient definition of him) must do or cannot do. There's a big difference. You might consider meme propagation and ruminate on why certain written down "random hypotheses" become religions and take over the world, while others don't. Oh, and speculations about the probabilities of things happening in universes with gods and universes without gods are neither facts nor arguments.

Comment author: V_V 12 December 2013 04:55:04PM 0 points [-]

Find a smart Christian and talk to her.

I don't think Pascal's wager is part of any form of mainstream Christian theology.

You might consider meme propagation and ruminate on why certain written down "random hypotheses" become religions and take over the world, while others don't.

I suggest this book: Religion Explained

Comment author: Lumifer 12 December 2013 05:04:21PM 1 point [-]

I don't think Pascal's wager is part of any form of mainstream Christian theology.

That was an answer to "I do actually want to know what the apparently so common christian reply to these arguments is".

Comment author: Lumifer 10 December 2013 08:12:21PM 1 point [-]

If I have offended you

I am not offended at all. The meaning of the sentence was that the argument started to follow well-worn railroad tracks.

it would be nice of you to explain why you think it isn't

I find your arguments unconvincing. I also don't have the inclination to get into a discussion of the Indifferent God approach which, again, is trampled ground.