= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
army1987 comments on The Power of Noise - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (80)
My inner Yudkowsky says “or maybe it just hasn't occurred to them”.
But I published my result in a prestigious journal in 1997 and told lots of high status people about it, and still no lotteries.
Did you ever ask anyone in a position to use a lottery why they wouldn't? "People aren't trying my idea" is evidence that it's a bad idea, but weak evidence, preferably replaced by "People say they aren't trying my idea because X" or "People aren't trying my idea but can't articulate why not" when possible.
I asked judge Richard Posner (one of my dissertation advisers) if he would be willing to use lotteries as a judge and he said no, it would get him impeached.
The legal system is based on the legal fiction that the judge can infallibly make a decision. If the judge makes a decision in a way which is guaranteed to be fallible in a certain percentage of cases, he violates this assumption, even if the guaranteed fallibility from randomness is less than his normal fallibility when not using randomness.
Interesting idea. Brazilian law explicitly admits lottery as a form of settling, but I'm not sure if that example with a penalty for not winning a lawsuit would be admissible.