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DanielLC comments on [LINK] Counterfactual Strategies - Less Wrong
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Comments (14)
I hadn't followed it.
I think you should either have the entire thing, or none of it (maybe just the conclusion). If I can't understand what's going on from your overview, I don't see the point of it being there.
In this example, it happens because the predictor guesses your strategy. It might not actually be before you choose the strategy, but since they can't exactly take advantage of you choosing first and look at it, it's functionally the same as them guessing your strategy.
What's the point of the -11 for asking fate? You can't choose not to. Having eleven fewer util no matter what doesn't change anything.
Alright, I removed the game tree from the summary.
The -11 was chosen to give a small, but not empty, area of positive-returns in the strategy space. You're right that it doesn't affect which strategies are optimal, but in my mind it affects whether finding an optimal strategy is fun/satisfying.