James_Miller comments on Will AGI surprise the world? - Less Wrong
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Really? And what's that opinion based on? Are you an expert in the field? I very often see this meme quoted, but no explanation to back it up.
I'm a computer scientist that has been following the AI / AGI literature for years. I have been doing my own private research (since publishing AGI work is too dangerous) based on OpenCog, pretty much since it was first open sourced, and a few other projects. I've looked at the issues involved in creating a seed AGI, while creating my own design for just such a system. And they are all solvable, or more often already solved but not yet integrated.
Do you have any predictions of what types of new narrow-AI we are likely to see in the next few years?
No, I wouldn't feel qualified to make predictions on novel narrow AI developments. I stay up to date with what's being published chiefly because my own design involves integrating a handful of narrow AI techniques, and new developments have ramifications for that. But I have no inside knowledge about what frontiers are being pushed next.
Edit: narrow AI and general AI are two very different fields, in case you didn't know.