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Squark comments on Will AGI surprise the world? - Less Wrong
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If the probability of FAI (and friendly uploads etc) is near zero, then we're doomed either way. But even though I believe the probability of provably friendly AI coming first is <50% , its definitely not 10^-11!
Fair enough, but there's still an enormous incentive to work on FAI.
Of course, I was not trying to suggest otherwise.