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FeepingCreature comments on Will AGI surprise the world? - Less Wrong
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This is my adopted long-term field -- though professionally I work as a bitcoin developer right now -- and those estimates are my own. 1-2 decades is based on existing AGI work such as OpenCog, and what is known about generalizations to narrow AI being done by Google and a few smaller startups. It is reasonable extrapolations based on published project plans, the authors' opinions, and my own evaluation of the code in the case of OpenCog. 5 years is what it would take if money were not a concern. 2-years is based on my own, unpublished simplification of the CogPrime architecture meant as a blitz to seed-stage oracle AGI, under the same money-is-no-concern conditions.
The only extrapolations I've seen around here, e.g. by lukeprog, involve statistically sampling AI researchers' opinions. Stuart Armstrong showed a year or two ago just how inaccurate this method is historically, as well as concrete reasons for why such statistical methods are useless in this case.
Hey, speaking as an AI layman, how do you rate the odds that a design based on OpenCog could foom? I haven't really dug into that codebase, but from reading the Wiki it's my impression that it's a bit of a heap left behind by multiple contributors trying to make different parts of it work for their own ends, and if a coherent whole could be wrought from it it would be too complex to feasibly understand itself. In that sense: how far out do you think OpenCog is from containing a complete operational causal model of its own codebase and operation? How much of it would have to be modified or rewritten to reach this point?