Eugine_Nier comments on Separating the roles of theory and direct empirical evidence in belief formation: the examples of minimum wage and anthropogenic global warming - Less Wrong

24 Post author: VipulNaik 25 June 2014 09:47PM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 26 June 2014 02:26:04AM *  -2 points [-]

For temperature data, I don't think that many people would question the data, average temperatures seem like good, hard facts to me.

Not really. The problem is we don't have uniformly spaced weather stations all over the earth. Furthermore the locations of the stations we do have tend to change over the time period of interest. (The various proxies suffer from similar problems.) Thus it's necessary to apply weights to the data we do have to correct for this. Unfortunately, the weights are semi-arbitrary in practice and as we learned from the leaked climategate e-mails frequently have the warming built in.

That is, when I hear empirical data in support of climate change, I think: 'well, obviously!', not 'here is the data that should be strengthening my belief in climate change'.

What's your reaction to the data that shows a lack of warming over the past 17-years?

Comment author: bramflakes 26 June 2014 10:21:28AM 5 points [-]

What's your reaction to the data that shows a lack of warming over the past 17-years?

Nothing, because you can make any trend in a noisy dataset vanish by looking at a carefully-chosen small slice. El Niño peaked in 1998, the subsequent temperatures look flatter in comparison. Yawn.

Zoom out, the trend is clear.

Comment author: brazil84 29 June 2014 04:56:12PM 3 points [-]

What's your reaction to the data that shows a lack of warming over the past 17-years?

My main issue with it is that the people on the warmist side of the debate completely failed to predict it. Which is pretty good evidence that their thinking and their computer models are wrong. And yet, as far as they know, they continue to insist that their thinking and computer models are fundamentally sound. It seems to me like a class case of groupthink, self-serving bias, etc.