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gwern comments on Separating the roles of theory and direct empirical evidence in belief formation: the examples of minimum wage and anthropogenic global warming - Less Wrong
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Comments (65)
Seems like a bad proxy to me. Is snowfall really that hard a metric to find...?
If the window is a decade back then the '90s will still be affecting the '00s since it only goes up to 2007.
I think it may depend on how exactly the smoothing was being done. If it's a smoothing like a LOESS then I'd expect the '00s raw data to be pulled up to the somewhat higher '90s data; but if the regression best-fit line is involved then I'd expect the other direction.
Presumably not, though since I'm not making up Met Office evidence (and don't have time to do my own analysis) I can only comment on the graphs which they themselves chose to plot in 2009. Snowfall was not one of those graphs (whereas it was in 2006).
However, the graphs of mean winter temperature, maximum winter temperature, and minimum winter temperature all point to the same trend as the air frost and heating-degree-day graphs. It would be surprising if numbers of days of snowfall were moving against that trend.
Interesting. I wonder why they're no longer plotting some trends. Maybe because it's too hard to fit them into their preferred narrative.
Or moving from conspiracy land, big budget cuts to climate research starting in 2009 might have something to do with it.
P.S. Since you started this sub-thread and are clearly still following it, are you going to retract your claims that CRU predicted "no more snow in Britain" or that Hansen predicted Manhattan would be underwater by now? Or are you just going to re-introduce those snippets in a future conversation, and hope no-one checks?
I was going from memory, now that I've tracked down the actual links I'd modify the claims what was actually said, i.e., snowfalls becoming exceedingly rare and the West Side Highway being underwater.
Thanks.... Upvoted for honest admission of error.