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gwern comments on A Parable of Elites and Takeoffs - Less Wrong
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In a world where a possibly-irrational actor is using "do what we tell you or you get nuked" as an instrument of foreign policy against a load of other possibly-irrational actors, how long would it be before something went horribly wrong?
Is a world in which only one possibly-irrational actor has nukes and can make threats more likely to go wrong or upon going wrong go horribly wrong, than a world in which dozens of possibly-irrational actors have nukes and can make threats?