Most people don't think that utilons are linear with job-productivity-years; for instance, having one person out of 100 permanently unemployed is worse than having every person in the 100 lose 1% of the years they would otherwise have worked.
This calculation completely neglects the utility generating function of productivity.
This calculation completely neglects the utility generating function of productivity.
No, it doesn't. That function affects the calculation by increasing the total utilions we attribute to productivity. Unless the increase is infinite, it is still possible for the loss in utility from high variance to outweigh the gain in utility from increased productivity.
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