douglas comments on Explainers Shoot High. Aim Low! - Less Wrong

40 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 24 October 2007 01:13AM

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Comment author: Constant2 24 October 2007 05:00:40AM 0 points [-]

when you have committed to the idea of probability as expressing degree of belief

Do you folks think that probability is properly understood only as an expression of degree of belief (and that, say, the other ideas about it are confused, circular, or whatever), or do you recognize the others while primarily being interested in degree of belief?

For my part, while I recognize the usefulness of employing the probability calculus to deal with degree of belief, I don't think it's the only use of the probability calculus. For example, I don't think we gain much by insisting on an interpretation of Buffon's needle in terms of degree of belief. I think it's comprehensible in the context of something like Buffon's needle to derive probability from geometric symmetries without routing through the notion of probability as degree of belief.