josh comments on Explainers Shoot High. Aim Low! - Less Wrong
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You thought elementary school students wouldn't be completely overwhelmed by a question like this?:
"1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer?
What do you think the answer is? If you haven't encountered this kind of problem before, please take a moment to come up with your own answer before continuing."
Seriously, even down to the use of big words like "mammographies".