I am also fascinated by the idea that a slow rise in sea level is described as a catastrophe. It is not. The sea has always eroded the coast and houses and other structures last a finite time in many of these places. Oh Well. When I suggest that a sea level rise slow enough that "we can walk away from it" is not particularly frightening, I am warned that poor countries with no hills could see millions die... of drowning? It is not clear. The hypothesis is that since they are poor they can't figure out how to move somewhere else. So the solution is to turn off all the engines in the world to help keep Bangladesh above sea level? It would be simpler and cheaper to buy a few million square miles in Africa an pay to move all interested Bangladeshi's there. Oh but that is not politically realistic? But turning off all the engines is?
I'd say abandoning entire coastal regions is pretty damn catastrophic, even if it's an orderly retreat and nobody drowns. That's still billions (trillions?) of dollars worth of real estate vanishing under the waves, not to mention the immense cultural loss.
Then again, median estimates for sea level rise never end up more than about a metre. If this simulation is to be believed, it won't encroach on coastlines that much. How expensive would it be to build giant levee systems to keep the water out of Bangladesh, like the Netherlands?
I'd say abandoning entire coastal regions is pretty damn catastrophic, even if it's an orderly retreat and nobody drowns. That's still billions (trillions?) of dollars worth of real estate vanishing under the waves, not to mention the immense cultural loss.
The real estate itself: as much ocean-front real estate is created by sea-level rise as is destroyed, approximately. So at this point, it is only the improvements upon the real estate which are lost. With sea level creeping slowly up, these losses should be minimal. Structures have various economic...
Note: Please see this post of mine for more on the project, my sources, and potential sources for bias.
I have written a couple of blog posts on my understanding of climate forecasting, climate change, and the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis (here and here). I also laid down the sources I was using to inform myself here.
I think one question that a number of readers may have had is: given my lack of knowledge (and unwillingness to undertake extensive study) of the subject, why am I investigating it at all, rather than relying on the expert consensus, as documented by the IPCC that, even if we're not sure is correct, is still the best bet humanity has for getting things right? I intend to elaborate on the reasons for taking a closer look at the matter, while still refraining from making the study of atmospheric science a full-time goal, in a future post.
Right now, I'm curious to hear how you formed your views on climate change. In particular, I'm interested in answers to questions such as these (not necessarily answers to all of them, or even to only these questions).