Are you saying my argument proves too much?
I am saying its overly broad.
it's an argument that can be used in favor of status quo in a lot of situations..., but it won't apply as strongly
Why not?
Example: Russia. The collapse of the USSR both impacted human welfare a lot and the society was slow to re-stablize. Or how about independence wars or revolutions in general?
The problem with your argument in meta terms is that it discounts the long-term utility too much in comparison with the short-term utility.
Or how about independence wars or revolutions in general?
You mean, those things that almost always increase human misery and fail to accomplish their objectives? Aside from the Americans, whose revolution was fundamentally very conservative(it was based on the rights of Englishmen as understood in the time of their grandfathers more than anything), revolutions are notoriously bad ideas.
Note: Please see this post of mine for more on the project, my sources, and potential sources for bias.
I have written a couple of blog posts on my understanding of climate forecasting, climate change, and the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis (here and here). I also laid down the sources I was using to inform myself here.
I think one question that a number of readers may have had is: given my lack of knowledge (and unwillingness to undertake extensive study) of the subject, why am I investigating it at all, rather than relying on the expert consensus, as documented by the IPCC that, even if we're not sure is correct, is still the best bet humanity has for getting things right? I intend to elaborate on the reasons for taking a closer look at the matter, while still refraining from making the study of atmospheric science a full-time goal, in a future post.
Right now, I'm curious to hear how you formed your views on climate change. In particular, I'm interested in answers to questions such as these (not necessarily answers to all of them, or even to only these questions).