What's your opinion on the situation in Mali?

What I mean to imply by "I don't even have a slight preference to either direction" is not that I assume a 50% prior probability to each side; it's that I don't assume a prior probability. Assuming one would be uninformative noise, since I don't know enough about it to have an opinion -- and it would be both harmful and irresponsible. Harmful since it would commit me to a prior for something that I don't want to have any priors about -- once I write down a percentage, I've committed to that percentage, and I'll be more likely to update based on it, even though it has next to nothing behind it and I don't want to go anywhere near it -- and irresponsible because, if I do it in public, it'll give other people something to update on, even though it's little better than getting a percentage out of a random number generator.

I'm deliberately ignoring evidence that could be used to update because I don't think that I'm obligated to have an opinion on literally everything in the world. My time is better spent elsewhere. And I'm deliberately ignoring the non-trivial priors I would base a probability estimate on if I ended up in an absurd counterfactual world where I absolutely had to give one because they're a product of the environment in which I was raised, they're not old enough to be justified in the Burkean sense, and I don't think that the processes by which those environmental opinions are formed have anything more than the most tenuous connection to the actual truth, whatever it is.

Background reading: http://www.gwern.net/Mistakes#mu