I'm assuming (perhaps incorrectly) that people who read this are familiar with the idea that we are approaching peak oil, and can expect it within the next 20 years, perhaps less, so they know how to appropriately fill in the blank on 'very long term', which we would have been filling in rather differently 200 years ago.
If you seriously didn't know this, well, now you know the implicit part of my argument.
I'm assuming (perhaps incorrectly) that people who read this are familiar with the idea that we are approaching peak oil
I can't speak for everyone who reads this, of course, but as to myself, I am familiar with the idea that we are approaching peak oil -- moreover, we have been approaching it for the last 40 years and, if anything, we seem to be farther away from it than we used to be. So, given the very consistent, I might even say systemic failures of peak oil forecasts, I have to be quite sceptical about the current one as well.
200 years ago, of course, oil was just a useless nuisance. People were concerned about coal. Notably, there is still lots and lots of coal around.
Note: Please see this post of mine for more on the project, my sources, and potential sources for bias.
I have written a couple of blog posts on my understanding of climate forecasting, climate change, and the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis (here and here). I also laid down the sources I was using to inform myself here.
I think one question that a number of readers may have had is: given my lack of knowledge (and unwillingness to undertake extensive study) of the subject, why am I investigating it at all, rather than relying on the expert consensus, as documented by the IPCC that, even if we're not sure is correct, is still the best bet humanity has for getting things right? I intend to elaborate on the reasons for taking a closer look at the matter, while still refraining from making the study of atmospheric science a full-time goal, in a future post.
Right now, I'm curious to hear how you formed your views on climate change. In particular, I'm interested in answers to questions such as these (not necessarily answers to all of them, or even to only these questions).