HungryHobo comments on The insularity critique of climate science - Less Wrong
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Counterexample: Simulation of interactions within cells. Despite the huge complexity of living cells there were some good simulations created based on known pathways in the cell. They created a finite state machine to model the cell.
the stable states discovered were later found to correspond extremely well with various tissues of the organism and predicted states that would cause apoptosis quite well.
I'll dig out my old notes and give a cite later.