buybuydandavis comments on How deferential should we be to the forecasts of subject matter experts? - Less Wrong

12 Post author: VipulNaik 14 July 2014 11:41PM

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Comment author: buybuydandavis 15 July 2014 10:02:17AM *  5 points [-]

The key is to see how much their experience in the subject matter has facilitated being an expert on forecasting the subject matter, or forecasting in general. A doctor may be expert in the mechanics of a disease process, but wholly incompetent in statistical inference about that disease process.