I think continued progress of Moore's law is quite plausible, and that was one of the scenarios I considered (Scenario #2). That said, it's interesting that you express high confidence in this scenario relative to the other scenarios, despite the considerable skepticism of computer scientists, engineers, and the McKinsey report.

Would you like to make a bet for a specific claim about the technological progress we'll see? We could do it with actual money if you like, or just an honorary bet. Since you're claiming more confidence than I am, I'd like the odds in my favor, at somewhere between 2:1 and 4:1 (details depend on the exact proposed bet).

My suggestion to bet (that you can feel free to ignore) isn't intended to be confrontational. cf.

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/05/the_bettors_oat.html