Bobertron comments on Causal Inference Sequence Part 1: Basic Terminology and the Assumptions of Causal Inference - Less Wrong

27 Post author: Anders_H 30 July 2014 08:56PM

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Comment author: Bobertron 05 August 2014 09:18:15AM 1 point [-]

The "A=a" stands for the event that the random variable A takes on the value a. It's another notation for the set {ω ∈ Ω | A(ω) = a}, where Ω is your probability space and A is a random variable (a mapping from Ω to something else, often R^n).

Okay, maybe you know that, but I just want to point out that there is nothing vague about the "A=a" notation. It's entirely rigorous.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 15 August 2014 06:17:33PM *  4 points [-]

I think the grandparent refers to the fact that in the context of causality (not ordinary probability theory) there is a distinction between ordinary mathematical equality and imperative assignment. That is, when I write a structural equation model:

Y = f(A, M, epsilon(y))

M = g(A, epsilon(m))

A = h(epsilon(a))

and then I use p(A = a) or p(Y = y | do(A = a)) to talk about this model, one could imagine getting confused because the symbol "=" is used in two different ways. Especially for p(Y = y | do(A = a)). This is read as: "the probability of Y being equal to y given that I performed an imperative assignment on the variable A in the above three line program, and set it to value a." Both senses of "=" are used in the same expression -- it is quite confusing!