Anders_H comments on Causal Inference Sequence Part 1: Basic Terminology and the Assumptions of Causal Inference - Less Wrong
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Comments (25)
Thank you, this is very high-quality feedback, with a lot of clear advice on how I can improve the post. I will do my best to make improvements over the next few days. I greatly appreciate that you took the time to draw my attention to these things. Among many other things, you have convinced me that a lot of things about the set-up are not obvious to non-epidemiologists. The article may need extensive restructuring to fix this.
You are obviously completely right about my abuse of the term "empirical research". I will fix it to something like "observational correlation studies" tomorrow.
I agree that this part of the post needs more work. I think what is happening, is that you have data on a probability distribution that was generated by graph 1, and are then asking if it could have been generated by a particular mechanism that can be described by graph 2. However, the point I wanted to make is that you would have been able to come up with some mechanism described by graph 2 that could account for the data.. I realize this is not clear, and I will work on it over the next few days.
When I use lower case a, I am referring to a specific value that the random variable A can take. Obviously, I agree that I should have spelled this out. For example , the counterfactual Y(a) describes would have happened we intervened to set A to a, where a can be either 0 or 1. The distinction between upper case and lower case is necessary..
Thanks. I should have realized that, and I think I did at some point but later lost track of this. With this understood properly I can't think of any counterexample, and I feel more confident now that this is true, but I'm still not sure whether it ought to be obvious.