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BillK comments on Motivated Stopping and Motivated Continuation - Less Wrong

29 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 28 October 2007 11:10PM

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Comment author: BillK 29 October 2007 10:00:16AM 4 points [-]

'Motivated stopping'? What springs to my mind is psi tests. If you regard psi tests as a possibly infinite series, then when you cut off testing and start analysing can produce any result you want.

'Lucky streaks' can occur at any any time in a string of random numbers.

That's why in psi testing you must calculate the exact number of tests required to show an effect of the size you expect and do precisely that number of tests, no more and no less. And you are not allowed to throw away the tests that resulted in average or negative results either.