Lumifer comments on Why the tails come apart - Less Wrong

114 Post author: Thrasymachus 01 August 2014 10:41PM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 28 July 2014 06:31:39PM 1 point [-]

If the underlying truth is not linear, why should we expect sensible answers from a linear model?

Because in many fields, linear models (even poor ones) are the best we're going to get, with more complex models losing to overfitting.

http://psycnet.apa.org/index.cfm?fa=buy.optionToBuy&id=1979-30170-001

Comment author: Lumifer 28 July 2014 06:52:45PM 4 points [-]

Because in many fields, linear models (even poor ones) are the best we're going to get, with more complex models losing to overfitting.

That's privileging a particular class of models just because they historically were easy to calculate.

If you're concerned about overfitting you need to be careful with how many parameters are you using, but that does not translate into an automatic advantage of a linear model over, say, a log one.

The article you linked to goes to pre-(personal)computer times when dealing with non-linear models was often just impractical.