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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Why the tails come apart - Less Wrong
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How do I account for how many models I've tested? No, really, I don't know what that'd even be called in the statistics literature, and it seems like if a general technique for doing this were known the big data people would be all over it.
The Bayesian approach with multiple models seems to be exactly what we need. eg http://www.stat.washington.edu/raftery/Research/PDF/socmeth1995.pdf