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othercriteria comments on Open thread, July 28 - August 3, 2014 - Less Wrong
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When I know I'm to be visited by one of my parents and I see someone who looks like my mother, should my first thought be "that person looks so unlike my father that maybe it is him and I'm having a stroke"? Should I damage my eyes to the point where this phenomenon doesn't occur to spare myself the confusion?
If you're being asked to estimate the probability that you're being visited by your father then yes you probably should be considering the possibility that you are seeing him but you're having a stroke.