Wes_W comments on Rationality Quotes August 2014 - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (233)
If the country of rationalists is attacked by a country of barbarians who are perfectly optimized for conquest, the rationalists will get conquered.
But there's no way to get from here to there except by Omega coming down and constructing exactly the race of barbarians necessary for the hypothetical to work. And if you're going to say that, there's no point in referring to them as barbarians and describing their actions in terms like "believes in an afterlife" and "obeys orders" that bring to mind real-life human cultures; you may as well say that Omega is just manipulating each individual barbarian like a player micromanaging a video game and causing him to act in exactly the way necessary for the conquest to work best.
Except of course that if you say "rationalists could be conquered by a set of drones micromanaged by Omega", without pretending that you're discussing a real-world situation, most people (assuming they know what you're talking about) would reply "so what?"
This is not inconsistent with the claim that, if the country of rationalists is attacked by a country of barbarians who are imperfectly optimized for conquest, the rationalists might get conquered, with the risk depending on how optimized the barbarians are. And, for that matter, the rationalist nation probably isn't theoretically optimal either...
On balance, believing true things is an advantage, but there are other kinds of advantages which don't automatically favor the rationalist side. Sheer numbers, for example.
How imperfectly optimized, though? Imperfectly optimized like Omega controlling each barbarian but occasionally rolling the barbarian's morale check, which fails on a 1 on a D100? Or imperfectly optimized like real life barbarians?
What about the Bolsheviks? Or the WW2-era Japanese?