eli_sennesh comments on Rationality Quotes August 2014 - Less Wrong
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This feels to me like a just world fallacy, or perhaps choosing the most convenient world. Yes, if the barbarians are completely stupid, they are probably not so much of a danger these days. If they are completely anti-science, we probably have better guns.
Now imagine somewhat smarter barbarians, who by themselves are unable to do sophisticated science, but have no problem kidnapping a few scientists and telling them to produce a lot of weapons for them, otherwise their families will be burned at stake. (Even if their religion prevents them from doing science, they may compartmentalize and believe it is okay to use the devil's tools against the devil himself.) Suddenly, the barbarians have good guns, too.
Maybe the reason why the West hasn't been conquered by Muslim fundamentalists yet is that Muslims don't have an equivalent of Genghis Khan. Someone who would have the courage to conquer the nearest territory, kill horribly everyone who opposed them, let live those who didn't (and make this fact publicly known), take some men and weapons from the conquered territory and use them to attack the next territory immediately, et cetera, spreading like a wildfire. First attacking some smaller but civilized countries to get better weapons for attacking the next ones. With multiple leaders, so that dropping a bomb won't stop the war. (Maybe one Osama hiding in secret, giving commands to dozen wannabe Genghis Khans who don't mind getting to paradise too soon.)
"Caliph" Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his group ISIS have been behaving exactly like this. They are quite young, but don't appear quite able to take on a Western military yet.
And yet, by definition, a group who are better at rationality win more often. We ought to expect that rational civilizations can beat irrational ones, because rationality is systematized cross-domain winning.
Well, there is this "valley of bad rationality" where being more rational about part of the problem but not yet more rational about other part can make people less winning.
Sometimes I feel are we are there at a society level. We have smart individuals, we have science, we fly to the moon, etc. However, superstition and blind hate can be an efficient tool for coordinating a group to fight against another group. We don't use this tool much (because it doesn't fit well with rationality and science), but we don't have an equally strong replacement. Also, only a few people in our civilization do the rationality and science. So even if there is a rationality-based defense, most of our society is too stupid to use it efficiently. On the scale from "barbarians" to "bayesians", most of our society is somewhere in the middle: not barbaric enough, but still far from rational.
A group that is better at rationality will win more often, but winning more often is not the same thing as "winning in a superset of the situations in which the irrational win".