Mac comments on A thought on AI unemployment and its consequences - Less Wrong

7 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 18 August 2014 12:10PM

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Comment author: Mac 24 August 2014 01:50:46AM 2 points [-]

Equities are not guaranteed to hedge this risk. Equity total returns are influenced by many factors, including: interest rates, valuation metrics, economic sensitivity, inflation, the tax regime...and on and on. Moreover, tons of research has shown that major equity indexes incorporate relevant information into their prices very quickly, so it is unlikely that you know something the market does not (see Efficient Market Hypothesis).

I'll expect your call 10 years from now.

Comment author: gwern 24 August 2014 05:19:58PM *  4 points [-]

Equity total returns are influenced by many factors, including: interest rates, valuation metrics, economic sensitivity, inflation, the tax regime...and on and on.

Sure, but so is your insurance fund. Worse, actually, since if you structure your investments wrong you may go flat bankrupt, which would be pretty much impossible if I'm holding indices.

Moreover, tons of research has shown that major equity indexes incorporate relevant information into their prices very quickly, so it is unlikely that you know something the market does not (see Efficient Market Hypothesis).

Yes, but that's irrelevant. In this scenario, I'm insuring, not investing. I don't care about average or risk-adjusted returns or stuff like that, I care only that in those states of the world where there is severe technological unemployment likely affecting me, I have assets of value. So the question is, in technological unemployment scenarios (whatever their probability, howsoever they are priced into the efficient market) would my equities be worth more? I think they would.

I'll expect your call 10 years from now.

I dunno, so far I'm not impressed by your prospectus. :)

Comment author: ESRogs 25 August 2014 05:02:52AM 0 points [-]

Mac, I think you may be underestimating the level of knowledge of the other commenters here. It's not like we haven't heard of David Ricardo or of the EMH.