Between outside view, Dunning-Krueger, and rhetorical questions about biases with no attempt to provide answers to them, you've built a schema for arguing against anything at all without the burden of bringing evidence to the table.
I don't think so. Try to use this scheme to argue against, say, quantum mechanics.
Bostrom's recent book? The arguments in the Sequences? No, that doesn't count, it's not exceptional enough
I haven't read Bostrom's recent book. Given that he's a guy who takes the simulation hypothesis seriously, I'd don't expect much valuable insight from him, but I could be wrong of course. If you think he has some substatially novel strong argument, feel free to point it out to me.
The Sequences discuss cryonics using weak arguments (e.g. the hard drive analogy). AFAIK they don't focus on intelligence explosion.
I think that Yudkowsky/Muehlhauser/MIRI argument for intelligence explosion is Good's argument, variously expanded and articulated in the Yudkowsky/Hanson debate. Needless to say, I don't find this line of argument very convincing.
Again, feel free to refer me to any strong argument that I might be missing.
I'm giving a talk to the Boulder Future Salon in Boulder, Colorado in a few weeks on the Intelligence Explosion hypothesis. I've given it once before in Korea but I think the crowd I'm addressing will be more savvy than the last one (many of them have met Eliezer personally). It could end up being important, so I was wondering if anyone considers themselves especially capable of playing Devil's Advocate so I could shape up a bit before my talk? I'd like there to be no real surprises.
I'd be up for just messaging back and forth or skyping, whatever is convenient.