(1) Moore's law seems to be slowing - this could be a speedbump before the next paradigm takes over, or it could be the start of stagnation, in which case the singularity is postponed.
The pithy one-liner comeback to this is that the human brain is an existence proof for a computer the size of the human brain with the performance of the human brain, and it seems implausible that nature arrived at the optimal basic design for neurons on (basically) its first try.
An existence proof is very different from a constructive proof! Nature did not happen upon this design on the first try, the brain has evolved for billions of generations. Of course, intelligence can work faster than the blind idiot god, and humanity, if it survives long enough, will do better. The question is, will this take decades or centuries?
I'm giving a talk to the Boulder Future Salon in Boulder, Colorado in a few weeks on the Intelligence Explosion hypothesis. I've given it once before in Korea but I think the crowd I'm addressing will be more savvy than the last one (many of them have met Eliezer personally). It could end up being important, so I was wondering if anyone considers themselves especially capable of playing Devil's Advocate so I could shape up a bit before my talk? I'd like there to be no real surprises.
I'd be up for just messaging back and forth or skyping, whatever is convenient.