MugaSofer comments on Anthropics doesn't explain why the Cold War stayed Cold - Less Wrong
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OK, well by analogy, what's the "payoff structure" for nuclear anthropics?
Obviously, we can't prevent it after the fact. The payoff we get for being right is in the form of information; a better model of the world.
It isn't perfectly analogous, but it seems to me that "be right" is most analogous to the Thirder payoff matrix for Sleeping-Beauty-like problems.
I'm not sure if it's because I'm Confused, but I'm struggling to understand if you are disagreeing, or if so, where your disagreement lies and how the parent comment in particular relates to that disagreement/the great-grandparent. I have a hunch that being more concrete and giving specific, minimally-abstract examples would help in this case.
I'm saying that if Sleeping Beauty's goal is to better understand the world, by performing a Bayesian update on evidence, then I think this is a form of "payoff" that gives Thirder results.
From If a tree falls on Sleeping Beauty...: