KnaveOfAllTrades comments on Anthropics doesn't explain why the Cold War stayed Cold - Less Wrong

6 Post author: KnaveOfAllTrades 20 August 2014 07:23PM

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Comment author: KnaveOfAllTrades 06 September 2014 07:45:47PM 2 points [-]

I'm not sure if it's because I'm Confused, but I'm struggling to understand if you are disagreeing, or if so, where your disagreement lies and how the parent comment in particular relates to that disagreement/the great-grandparent. I have a hunch that being more concrete and giving specific, minimally-abstract examples would help in this case.

Comment author: MugaSofer 07 September 2014 04:56:31PM *  1 point [-]

I'm saying that if Sleeping Beauty's goal is to better understand the world, by performing a Bayesian update on evidence, then I think this is a form of "payoff" that gives Thirder results.

From If a tree falls on Sleeping Beauty...:

Each interview consists of one question, “What is your credence now for the proposition that our coin landed heads?”, and the answer given will be scored according to a logarithmic scoring rule, with the aggregate result corresponding to the number of utilons (converted to dollars, let’s say) she will be penalized after the experiment.

In this case it is optimal to bet 1/3 that the coin came up heads, 2/3 that it came up tails: [snip table]

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