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Lumifer comments on Bayesianism for humans: prosaic priors - Less Wrong

22 Post author: BT_Uytya 02 September 2014 09:45PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 03 September 2014 07:05:33PM 3 points [-]

The second insight can be formulated as «the dull explanations are more likely to be correct because they tend to have high prior probability.»

That needs a LOT of caveats.

A counter-quote: "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." - H. L. Mencken