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KatjaGrace comments on Superintelligence Reading Group - Section 1: Past Developments and Present Capabilities - Less Wrong
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I find the whole idea of predicting AI-driven economic growth based on analysis of all of human history as a single set of data really unconvincing. It is one thing to extrapolate up-take patterns of a particular technology based on similar technologies in the past. But "true AI" is so broad, and, at least on many accounts, so transformative, that making such macro-predictions seems a fool's errand.
If you knew AI to be radically more transformative than other technologies, I agree that predictions based straightforwardly on history would be inaccurate. If you are unsure how transformative AI will be though, it seems to me to be helpful to look at how often other technologies have made a big difference, and how much of a difference they have made. I suspect many technologies would seem transformative ahead of time - e.g. writing, but seem to have made little difference to economic growth.