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KatjaGrace comments on Superintelligence Reading Group - Section 1: Past Developments and Present Capabilities - Less Wrong
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If you don't know what causes growth mode shifts, but there have been two or three of them and they seem kind of regular (see Hanson 2000, p14), how likely do you think another one is? (p2) How much evidence do you think history gives us about the timing and new growth rate of a new growth mode?