DanArmak comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong

19 Post author: shminux 28 August 2014 11:37PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 29 August 2014 02:40:48PM *  15 points [-]

Why will the Baltics be different?

Because they are members of NATO.

If NATO doesn't react to the Russian invasion, it will be clearly and very publicly dead. And that would radically change the power equation in Europe and may e.g. lead to Western Europe rearming itself.

I am not saying that if Putin, say, starts grabbing chunks of Estonia, NATO will necessarily intervene. It might decide to die instead. But the odds are very different from the Ukraine case.

And, of course, NATO's original purpose and whole reason for existence is precisely to contain the Russian/Soviet expansion to the west.

Comment author: DanArmak 29 August 2014 10:50:02PM 5 points [-]

And, of course, NATO's original purpose and whole reason for existence is precisely to contain the Russian/Soviet expansion to the west.

I don't think the reasons for forming NATO in 1949 are, or should be, relevant today. Upholding treaties is a legitimate concern, but what people cared about two generations ago when they formed them isn't.

Comment author: simplicio 11 September 2014 10:46:08PM 2 points [-]

East Europeans wanted into NATO for protection both from Communism and from Russian domination simpliciter. The latter consideration has not fundamentally changed.