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FeepingCreature comments on The Octopus, the Dolphin and Us: a Great Filter tale - Less Wrong
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What if we're the first in a winner-takes-all scenario? If the first-mover prevents (or vastly reduces the likelihood of) the evolution of latter intelligent life, intelligent life should not be surprised by being the first intelligent species to evolve.
That we're not that special is an assumption of the Great Filter argument. We could be the first intelligence to arrive on the scene, but it probably will be more harmful to underestimate upcoming pitfalls than overestimating them.