Lumifer comments on The Octopus, the Dolphin and Us: a Great Filter tale - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 03 September 2014 09:37PM

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Comment author: private_messaging 11 September 2014 07:49:25AM *  2 points [-]

But how you imagine that would work? How will a longer timespan help?

Let's picture that we literally took 10 000 top human engineers and scientists, with all our human knowledge, into dolphin bodies, on another planet with no human artefacts. So, our dolphin people now need to somehow develop a way of writing down their knowledge underwater, which they can only do very laboriously because they haven't got hands. They can write very large letters with immense energy expenditure per letter. They can barely store any knowledge. They also got short lifespan and sharks to worry about.

And on the tools side, you need tools that are good enough so you can use them to make better tools. That generally requires ability to harden things - make something while it's soft, let it harden, use something softer to crack apart something harder. And to get that started, you need hands, because without hands you can only make the kind of tools that doesn't help you make better tools.

If you can't make an improvement in any single generation, you can't make any improvement in a thousand generations either.

Meanwhile, a planet populated with those same scientists and engineers in human bodies - hell, dog bodies, cat bodies, elephant bodies - would've had it all sorted out in no time. They'd have steel, electricity, running water, radio, and so on, in less than a generation - hell even 10 people can do that.

(assuming they all cooperate).

The gap due to the body shape and environment appears utterly immense. The only hope would be that dophins would evolve much greater than human intelligence and come up with something that we can't come up with (e.g. mind controlling some animal with hands).

edit: That is not to say a small number of top scientists and engineers would single handedly create industrial manufacturing, but that is to say they would re-create pre-industrial village level technology and then hand-make many important bits of 20th century technology. You can take a 16th century blacksmith's forge and make an electric generator in there, a spark gap transmitter, a coherer receiver, a carbon arc lamp, and the like, using most basic materials and hand manufacturing techniques. Indeed that's how the early instances of all those things were made - by a small number of top engineers, often in their spare time, without advance knowledge.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 September 2014 04:29:27PM 4 points [-]

Let's picture that we literally took 10 000 top human engineers and scientists, with all our human knowledge, into dolphin bodies, on another planet with no human artefacts.

That's a bad start. The issue is not whether intelligent dolphins will be able to replicate human civilization, the issue is whether they might be able to develop their own -- one which will look very different from human and which, I suspect, would be largely beyond our imagination at the moment.

Comment author: private_messaging 12 September 2014 02:33:33PM *  1 point [-]

The point of the example is to provoke a concrete discussion. Appeals to unimaginable are not very useful. The underwater environment doesn't seem as conductive to technological visible-from-a-distance civilization, in any case. Dramatically different civilizations may not go into space, and if we are discussing civilizations whose apparent absence in the sky is suspicious, those recreate a huge chunk of our own civilization.

edit: let's put it this way. The only data point we got on things such as civilization not becoming stagnant, or civilization becoming visible, is our own. The further we go from there the less reason we have to expect those to occur.

Comment author: Lumifer 12 September 2014 02:46:50PM 0 points [-]

if we are discussing civilizations whose apparent absence in the sky is suspicious, those recreate a huge chunk of our own civilization.

I see absolutely no reason for that to be so. Generalizing from the sample of one is foolhardy.

Comment author: private_messaging 12 September 2014 03:07:50PM *  0 points [-]

Generalizing from the sample of one is where you get the idea that we'll see them from. edit: let's just agree that the assumption that aliens would be visible has uncertainties, that are much larger for some really really alien unimaginable aliens.