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Decius comments on The Octopus, the Dolphin and Us: a Great Filter tale - Less Wrong
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While not logically impossible, a test that requires an astronomical amount of time to attempt is not something I can update on.
That said, there is a fairly low prior that the conditions for a galactic civilization to develop in the current era are better than they were last era. There is, however, quite a bit of evidence that there is not currently a galactic civilization.