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V_V comments on The Great Filter is early, or AI is hard - Less Wrong
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It's also possible that AI used to be hard but no longer is because something in the universe recently changed. Although this seems extremely unlikely, The Fermi paradox implies that something very unlikely is indeed occurring.
Or space colonization is just hard.
The evidence seems to be that it's "easy" (see http://lesswrong.com/lw/hll/to_reduce_astronomical_waste_take_your_time_then/ ), at least over the thousand-million year range.