TylerJay comments on The Great Filter is early, or AI is hard - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 29 August 2014 04:17PM

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Comment author: bogdanb 31 August 2014 07:38:23AM *  2 points [-]

The problem with that is that life on Earth appeared about 4 billion years ago, while the Milky Way is more than 13 billion years old. If life were somewhat common, we wouldn’t expect to be the first, because there was time for it to evolve several times in succession, and it had lots of solar systems where it could have done it.

A possible answer could be that there was a very strong early filter during the first part of the Milky Way’s existence, and that filter lessened in intensity in the last few billion years.

The only examples I can think of are elemental abundance (perhaps in a young galaxy there are much fewer systems with diverse enough chemical compositions) and supernova frequency (perhaps a young galaxy is sterilized by frequent and large supernovas much more often than an older one’s). But AFAIK both of those variations can be calculated well enough for a Fermi estimate from what we know, so I’d expect someone who knows the subject much better than I would have made that point already if they were plausible answers.

Comment author: TylerJay 01 September 2014 06:26:07PM 3 points [-]

Even within the Milky Way, most "earthlike" planets in habitable zones around sunlike stars are on average 1.8 Billion years older than the Earth. If the "heavy bombardment" period at the beginning of a rocky planet's life is approximately the same length for all rocky stars, which is likely, then each of those 11 Billion potentially habitable planets still had 1.8 billion years during which life could have formed. On Earth, life originated almost immediately after the bombardment ended and the earth was allowed to cool. Even if the probability of each planet developing life in a period of 1 Billion years is mind-bogglingly low, we still should expect to see life forming on some of them given 20 Billion Billion planet-years.

Comment author: bogdanb 05 September 2014 11:23:43PM 2 points [-]

most "earthlike" planets in habitable zones around sunlike stars are on average 1.8 Billion years older than the Earth

How do you know? (Not rhethorical, I have no idea and I’m curious.)

Comment author: TylerJay 06 September 2014 05:20:27AM 2 points [-]

It was in a paper I read. Here it is

Comment author: bogdanb 17 February 2015 08:38:22PM 0 points [-]

Thank you, that was very interesting!