Vladimir_Nesov comments on Why appearance matters or “to behave as if” - Less Wrong
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Comments (17)
It's not clear. To the extent something happens only rarely, it's unimportant. In the hypothetical where this event happens very rarely, it's not important, and so someone who has that information can argue against the importance of that event. If in actuality, we can't argue against its importance, this suggests that it happens more frequently, but you didn't argue that (at that point).