pragmatist comments on Open thread, Sept. 1-7, 2014 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: polymathwannabe 01 September 2014 12:18PM

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Comment author: gwern 06 September 2014 10:49:38PM *  13 points [-]

Saying it's a direct A/B comparison is seriously overstating it. Transitioning is itself a huge confounder, and if it were true that time before/after were exactly comparable, that would debunk one of the main justifications for allowing sex-changes in the first place!

Of course, the sample size is small here. And there’s no perfect agreement on cause-and-effect. Chris Edwards, a trans advertising executive, says that post-transition, he was given greater levels of responsibility—but he thinks it’s because the testosterone he took changed his behavior. He became less timid and more outspoken—and was seen, at work, as more of a leader. Indeed, some suggest that transmen might experience these workplace benefits partly because, post-transition, they are happier and more comfortable, and that this confidence leads to greater workplace success. But if that’s the case, one would expect that transwomen, armed with this same newfound confidence, would see benefits. The opposite seems to be true.

Note the willful incomprehension of the author about the possible effects of things like testosterone. 'Opposite seems to be true' my ass. But I suppose materialism and individual differences should never be allowed to get in the way of a good story about endemic sexism and racism...

(Sadly, this is only the second most infuriating statistical argument I've seen today. The first is a linear regression in the Washington Post about whippings vs productivity for slaves, in which they claim it shows whipping works. Aside from the usual correlation!=causality problem, their scatterplot clearly shows that there is not such a small positive correlation: their model does not fit the data because most slaves were never whipped so it's not Gaussian but more like a zero-inflated model, and in the population that was whipped a non-zero number of times, more whippings correlate dramatically with decreased cotton production. At a guess, male slaves were much more likely to act out or run away or get into fights or refuse to produce, and would be whipped for it. It borders on malpractice to present this graph baldly without including sex as a covariate or better yet doing a mixture model - certainly any model diagnostics would flag this regression as bogus. The author's bio says he's a professor at Columbia who "studies the roots of poverty and violence in developing countries, especially Africa"; all I can think is that if that's what passes for analysis for him, then no wonder Africa remains poor and violent.)

Comment author: pragmatist 08 September 2014 12:11:00PM *  2 points [-]

Note the willful incomprehension of the author about the possible effects of things like testosterone. 'Opposite seems to be true' my ass. But I suppose materialism and individual differences should never be allowed to get in the way of a good story about endemic sexism and racism...

I think you're misreading the author here. In that paragraph she's discussing two different hypotheses. The first is that increased testosterone makes post-transition trans men more confident, and the second is that the process of transitioning itself makes them more confident (because now they no longer suffer from anxiety and depression associated with gender dysphoria). The comparison with trans women is only intended to be a counterpoint to the second hypothesis, not the first, so there is no "willful incomprehension" here.

Comment author: gwern 08 September 2014 07:36:15PM 2 points [-]

No, I'm not misreading her. The first hypothesis, shifts in testosterone+estrogen levels, subsumes the second and also addresses the criticism she offers of it. She's not seriously thinking about it.

Comment author: pragmatist 09 September 2014 10:41:51AM 4 points [-]

The first hypothesis doesn't subsume the second. The second hypothesis is that the increased confidence comes from increased psychological well-being due to no longer inhabiting a body you don't identify with. If that was the sole (or primary) reason for increased confidence among post-transition trans men, then we should expect the effect to be symmetric, and for post-transition trans women to exhibit increased confidence too. The fact that they don't suggests that we should look for a different explanation, one that distinguishes between trans men and women. The testosterone hypothesis is one plausible possibility. Institutional sexism is another.

Comment author: gwern 09 September 2014 08:55:29PM 3 points [-]

If there are differential perceived benefits in social prestige/power from transitioning based on direction, this is consistent with there being only one factor (sexism) conditional on direction but also consistent with there being unconditional benefits plus the pushmi-pullu effect of swapping testosterone & other androgens for estrogen etc in which the net effect for the mtf is indeterminate. I am willing to take their word on transitioning being good for them, which accounts for the first factor, I prefer experimentally demonstrated effects from powerful mind-altering hormones to unprovable spooks like institutional sexism, and so the hormone model seems to me to fit much better.