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Well, yes, I agree, but I'm not sure how that helps.
We're now replacing facts about his thoughts (which the story provides us) with speculations about what he might have done in various possible worlds (which seem reasonably easy to infer, either from what we're told about his thoughts, or from our experience with human nature, but are hardly directly observable).
How does this improve matters?
I don't think they are pure speculations. This is not the shipowner's first launch, so the speculations over possible worlds can be approximated by observations over past decisions.